Montero helping Sounders FC across the river

Soccer Betting Lines

09/07/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - With a record of 12-7-11, a playoff spot as the Western Conference's No. 3 seed, a U.S. Open Cup Championship, and almost half-a- million in paid attendance, Seattle Sounders FC was coming off one of the most successful expansion seasons in Major League Soccer history in 2009.

But the first half to the 2010 season didn't go nearly as smoothly.

The Sounders were 4-8-3 after a July 4 loss at the Los Angeles Galaxy, and it appeared the second-year MLS club was headed for a major letdown in 2010.

But since that loss at L.A., the Sounders have gone 5-1-2 to improve their overall record to 9-9-5.

Twenty-three-year-old Colombian striker Fredy Montero has been one of the main reasons for the recent turnaround. He scored five goals during that stretch, three of which were game-winners. He also has three game-winning assists.

Montero has 10 goals and nine assists overall this season, and is on pace to easily best his 12 goals and seven assists of last season, when he won the MLS Newcomer of the Year Award. But his contributions go well beyond the numbers.

Since joining MLS from Colombia's First Division - where he was the Golden Boot winner in 2007 and 2008 - Montero has established himself as one of the league's most consistent attackers. He has made the adjustment to a different culture and to a league that has a lot more travel, is much more physical, and has inconsistent refereeing from game to game. And he has done it all while upping his commitment to the Sounders, both on and off the field.

"He has really increased his work-rate on and off the ball for us in terms of helping us out at times defensively and getting himself into some very good offensive positions," Seattle coach Sigi Schmid told The Sportsbook Betting Lines. "He's had more touches because the guys have been more comfortable with him. They know where to find him.

"He got used to the league. It's something we talked about. He was already pretty powerful and knew how to use his body, it definitely comes into play. He realizes that some of the calls he would get in Colombia he wouldn't get here, he's fighting through some of those situations. Obviously he's one of our leaders in the game, he's one of our most important players."

Basically, Montero has transformed himself from the hotshot newcomer, into a respected leader on the team.

"I'm happy because I've earned that on the field," Montero told The Sportsbook Betting Lines through interpreter Gene Ramirez. "Obviously the responsibility is bigger with my [teammates], coaches, and the [front office], and obviously with all the fans."

Last season Montero put up big numbers as an unknown playing for an expansion team. The fact that it appears like he is going to smash his goal output from a year ago - while already topping his assist mark - is a testament to his hard work, because teams now know what to expect from the 5-foot-9 speedster.

"It is a little harder at the personal level and the collective level because the goals that I am scoring this year are starting to look like a virtue of mine," Montero said. "Last year I was not that well known in MLS."

RUNNING DOWN A DREAM

It's no secret that Montero has his sight set on a transfer to a European power at some point in his soccer career, but so far he is taking a patient approach, refining his game so that he gives himself the best chance for long- term success at the highest level.

"That is my dream and I believe it is the dream of all the players to be in the highest, most competitive leagues in all of Europe," he said. "I'm hoping that when the times comes, I go there and play there for a long time and not just one season and return like some players have done."

One driving force for Montero is the support of his family as he chases his dream.

"It is not easy at my age," he said. "Obviously I left my house at 13-years- old following my dream. I'm still following my dream. It's gratifying that I have my mom, dad, brothers and sisters living with me. It's gratifying to have them by my side."

BUMP IN THE ROAD

Seattle is coming off a 3-1 loss at New England on Saturday, a loss that snapped a seven-game unbeaten run. Will that loss send the team back into a tailspin, or was it a bump in the road to the MLS Cup playoffs?

"Right now our short-term goal is we have to make sure we make the playoffs," Schmid said. "We can't get caught looking ahead. The example I always use for players is, if you are trying to get to the other side of the river and you are walking across stones, your goal is to get to the other side of the river. But if you take your eye off the next stone you go splash and you never get to the other side."

Montero echoed Schmid's statement.

"We are taking it one game at a time and we try to view each game as if it was a playoff game, whether its a CONCACAF game, U.S. Open Cup or an MLS game."

Seattle is currently in seventh in the league table, with the top eight qualifying for the playoffs at the end of October.

FIRST TO TWO

Regardless of what happens in league play this season, the Sounders have a chance to do something no MLS team has ever done before - win back-to-back U.S. Open Cup Championships.

"Nobody has won it back-to-back since the early 80s when a New York team did it when it was basically all of the ethnic leagues all over the country," Schmid said. "Being the first team in a long time to win it back-to-back, being the first team in MLS is something that we would be very proud of. It's unique, it's different, it sets us apart. When you can be the first at something nobody can every take that away from you."

The Sounders host the Columbus Crew in the tournament final on Oct. 5 at Qwest Field.

"You don't get many chances in your lifetime as a soccer player, as a coach, to actually win a championship in your home stadium," Schmid said. "It doesn't happen in MLS Cup very often. Obviously it doesn't happen in [CONCACAF] Champions League and things like that. It is very rare that you get a chance to hoist a trophy in front of your home crowd. We are very excited about that."

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Sportsbooks to bet on football

Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.

He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.

"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.

He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.

Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.

Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.

Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.

Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.

With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.

Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).

And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)

The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.

While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.

Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.

One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.

Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.

What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.

That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.

MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.

"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.

"At the end of the day, we liked the home team."

So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams.

In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.

MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.

The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.

Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.

MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.

To visit this online football betting got to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting odds needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.